Checking three different surf apps before a dawn session and still second-guessing yourself is a rite of passage for Wellington surfers. Lyall Bay in Wellington offers some of the most consistent waves on New Zealand’s south coast—but only when you know what to look for. This guide pulls together the most reliable forecasts, live camera feeds, and swell comparisons so you can make a call before you load up the car. We’ll cover Lyall Bay’s seven-day outlook, live surf cam options, and how nearby Titahi Bay and Houghton Bay stack up when Lyall Bay is flat.

4 related posts

Max Expected Waves: 5ft 13s · Primary Swell: 7ft 6s South · Secondary Swell: 1ft 11s Southeast · Wind Forecast: Northerly 10 knots · Best Conditions: South swell with North wind

Quick snapshot

1Confirmed facts
2What’s unclear
  • Exact live status of third-party webcams varies by provider
  • Tide timing data limited across forecast sources
  • Recent surf session logs not publicly available
3Timeline signal
  • First rated swell at Lyall Bay arrives 4AM Tuesday Mar 31 (Surf-Forecast Lyall Bay)
  • Most powerful waves expected 3.5m 13s on Tuesday Mar 31 at 7PM (Surf-Forecast Lyall Bay)
  • Open ocean swell peaks at 2.1m 6s on Saturday Apr 04 at 1AM (Surf-Forecast Lyall Bay)
4What’s next
  • Watch for Metservice wind forecasts rising to 25 knots midweek
  • Titahi Bay peaks later in the forecast window (May 07)
  • Cross-winds likely to affect surface conditions through the week

The table below summarizes the key parameters currently affecting surf conditions at Lyall Bay and across the Wellington region.

Parameter Current / Forecast
Location Wellington, New Zealand
Primary Swell 7ft 6s from South
Wind Northerly 10–25 knots
Max Forecast Wave 5ft 13s
Optimal Setup South swell with offshore North

Lyall Bay surf forecast 7 days

Surf-Forecast’s six-day model shows a solid South swell event building through the week, with the primary swell predicted to reach 5ft with a 13-second period (Surf-Forecast Lyall Bay). Cross-offshore winds are forecast as the swell arrives, which typically means cleaner face angles at Lyall Bay’s left-hand wedge. Wave periods of 12–13 seconds indicate groundswell energy traveling long distances from the Southern Ocean—these are the wave types that surfers look for at this spot.

Current 48-hour details

As of 1PM, Lyall Bay is showing 4ft primary swell at 12 seconds from the South, with a secondary swell of 0ft 9s from the Southeast (Surf-Forecast Lyall Bay 48hr). This represents decent mid-range energy for the bay, though conditions will depend heavily on the incoming wind. Northerly winds at 10 knots are currently blowing offshore—a favorable setup that keeps the surface groomed rather than choppy.

Weekly swell outlook

Looking ahead, the forecast shows several notable swell events. The most powerful waves at Lyall Bay in the next 16 days are reported at 3.5m 13s on Tuesday Mar 31 at 7PM (Surf-Forecast Lyall Bay). Cross-onshore winds are expected to accompany this peak, which could result in bumpier conditions despite the wave size. An open ocean swell of 2.1m 6s is predicted for Saturday Apr 04 at 1AM, representing shorter-period local wind swell rather than the clean groundswell arriving midweek.

The pattern emerging across the forecast is typical for Wellington in autumn: multiple Southern Ocean pulses with mixed wind conditions. Lyall Bay’s exposure to the south means it catches these pulses directly, but it also means northerly winds are critical for clean conditions—the difference between a fun session and a messy shorebreak often comes down to which direction the wind blows.

Lyall Bay surf forecast cam

Live surf cameras offer a real-time check that no forecast model can fully replace—you can see exactly how the waves are holding, whether the channel is navigable, and whether other surfers are already in the water. For Lyall Bay specifically, several options exist, ranging from official surf club equipment to independent webcam networks covering the Wellington coast.

Live cam sources

The Lyall Bay Surf Life Saving Club operates a dedicated surf cam that provides a live stream for beach users, swimmers, and surfers (Lyall Bay SLSC). This is the most direct option for checking actual conditions in real time. Surfline also provides a camera feed at Lyall Bay—The Corner, alongside their 16-day surf forecast and detailed reports (Surfline Lyall Bay). SURFCO maintains Wellington regional cams including Lyall Bay, offering complementary coverage that can help verify conditions from a different angle (SURFCO Lyall Bay).

Free viewing options

For free access, the Lyall Bay SLSC cam and CamJam’s Wellington coverage both offer no-cost viewing without a subscription (CamJam Lyall Bay). Parrotdog also hosts a Lyall Bay Surf Cam, giving Wellington residents and visitors an additional free reference point (Parrotdog). Note that third-party cam availability can vary—some providers rotate feeds or have maintenance windows that affect uptime. Cross-referencing two or three cam sources gives a more reliable picture than relying on a single feed.

The trade-off for free cams is typically lower resolution and no archiving. Paid platforms like Surfline add features like session recording, wind overlays, and tide integration, but for a quick pre-session check, free options cover the essentials. Surf cams enable real-time condition checks that improve safety decisions, especially for unfamiliar swell events or when the forecast confidence is lower.

Lyall Bay surf forecast tomorrow

For those planning a dawn patrol or an after-work session tomorrow, the short-term forecast is the most actionable data point. Metservice provides marine forecasts including wind, swell, wave height, and quality ratings for Lyall Bay (MetService), giving official weather-ministry verification alongside the surf-specialist models.

Tomorrow’s swell and wind

Metservice is predicting a northerly wind that could rise to 25 knots through the day, which represents a meaningful increase from today’s 10-knot forecast. Cross-winds from the north tend to create texture on Lyall Bay’s face, though this effect is reduced when the swell direction is strongly from the south—creating an offshore groom that partially offsets the side-on wind chop. The secondary swell from the Southeast is forecast at around 1ft 11s, which adds some background energy but is unlikely to be the primary factor in session quality.

Tide impacts

Tide data is among the gaps noted across available forecast sources. Lyall Bay is known for a left-hand wedge with shifting sandbanks along the shore, which means the optimal take-off zone can shift with tidal cycles (CamJam Lyall Bay). Low tide often exposes more reef and creates steeper faces—good for advanced surfers but potentially hazardous for beginners. High tide can offer more forgiving entry points but may reduce wave definition on smaller swells. Until comprehensive tide tables are integrated into the main forecast tools, checking a dedicated tide app alongside your swell forecast is advisable for timing your session correctly.

The Metservice wind forecast of 25 knots is worth monitoring closely—if it materializes earlier than predicted, conditions may deteriorate faster than the swell model suggests. For tomorrow specifically, arriving early before the wind picks up could make the difference between a clean morning session and an afternoon battle against chop.

Titahi Bay surf forecast

When Lyall Bay is firing, it’s worth knowing how nearby Titahi Bay compares—both are within the Wellington region but offer distinctly different wave personalities. Titahi Bay sits on the Kapiti Coast, roughly an hour’s drive north of Lyall Bay, and requires solid Northwest swell for activation (CamJam Titahi Bay). This makes it a more conditional spot rather than a consistent daily option.

Comparison to Lyall Bay

In short-term forecasts, Lyall Bay shows higher maximum swell energy than Titahi Bay—the most powerful waves at Lyall Bay reach 3.5m 13s compared to Titahi Bay’s 2.1m 7s (Surf-Forecast). This difference reflects Lyall Bay’s direct exposure to the Southern Ocean versus Titahi Bay’s more sheltered position behind Kapiti Island. However, when Titahi Bay does light up with the right Northwest swell, it can offer longer, less crowded lines than Lyall Bay.

The most powerful waves expected at Titahi Bay in the next 16 days are reported at 5ft 6s on Thursday May 07 at 3AM (Surf-Forecast Titahi Bay). That’s a solid Northwest event, though the timing suggests a winter swell arriving late in the forecast window. The open ocean swell data shows Titahi Bay’s largest energy at 0.8m 4s—much smaller than Lyall Bay’s 2.1m 6s open ocean reading.

Local conditions

Surfline offers a surf report, 16-day forecast, and surf cam for Titahi Bay (Surfline Titahi Bay), while Good Surf Now provides high-resolution forecasts, cams, and wave buoy data specifically for the New Zealand coast (Good Surf Now). SURFCO’s Titahi Bay cam also includes Kapiti regional forecasts showing southerly 10 knots easing with westerly swell at 1m (SURFCO Titahi Bay).

For Wellington surfers who know both spots, Titahi Bay functions as a backup plan when Lyall Bay is blown out by northerly winds. The swell direction requirements are essentially opposite: Lyall Bay wants South swell with North wind, while Titahi Bay needs Northwest swell. When the forecast shows a pattern unfavorable for one spot, the other may be coming alive.

Houghton Bay surf forecast

Houghton Bay lies between Lyall Bay and the central Wellington coast, making it another option for surfers willing to drive a few minutes up the road. While it shares some of Lyall Bay’s exposure to South swells, Houghton Bay has its own character and swell windows—worth knowing about if you’re scouting conditions across the Wellington region.

Nearby alternative

Houghton Bay doesn’t have the same dedicated forecast coverage as Lyall Bay, but Surf-Forecast’s regional models include the area within their broader Wellington/Kapiti forecasts. The shared swell patterns across Wellington’s south coast mean that when Lyall Bay is showing solid South energy, Houghton Bay often receives similar pulses. The key variables are local bathymetry and wind shadow effects—Houghton Bay can be slightly more sheltered from northerly winds than Lyall Bay’s exposed beach break.

Shared swell patterns

Westerly swells of around 1m with southerly winds 10 knots easing are typical for the Kapiti-Wellington region during this forecast window (SURFCO). Houghton Bay benefits from this regional pattern but remains secondary to Lyall Bay in terms of forecast frequency and surf cam availability. For serious swell tracking, applying Lyall Bay’s forecast data to Houghton Bay is reasonable for directional guidance, but direct conditions checks via any available cameras remain the most reliable approach.

For surfers with flexibility, Houghton Bay is worth a look on days when Lyall Bay is crowded or when a different wave shape is preferred. The spot is less documented than Lyall Bay, which can mean fewer crowds but also less community knowledge about optimal take-off points and hazard zones. Respecting local knowledge and watching for a few minutes before entering the water is always recommended at any new spot.

Bottom line: Lyall Bay is riding a solid South swell window this week with 5ft 13s waves expected. North wind keeps it groomed early, but 25-knot northerlies midweek could churn things up. Live cams from the SLSC, Surfline, and CamJam give real-time verification, while Titahi Bay offers a Northwest-swell backup plan for later in the forecast period.

What’s confirmed

  • Lyall Bay primary swell 5ft 13s from Surf-Forecast
  • Current 4ft 12s S swell at 1PM reading
  • Lyall Bay surf cam operated by Lyall Bay SLSC
  • Surfline provides 16-day forecasts and cams for both bays
  • MetService official marine forecasts for Lyall Bay
  • Lyall Bay favors South swells, optimal under N wind

What’s still unclear

  • Exact uptime status of third-party webcams
  • Precise tide timing tables
  • Sea temperature and wave quality ratings
  • Recent surf session logs from community
  • Houghton Bay specific swell data

The primary swell is predicted to be 5ft and 13s period with a secondary swell of 0ft and 9s. The wind is predicted to be cross-offshore as the swell arrives.

— Surf-Forecast, Forecast Service (Surf-Forecast Lyall Bay)

A delightful left-hand wedge near the airport strip, with shifting sandbanks along the shore. Favors S swells the most. Best conditions under a N wind.

— CamJam, Surf Cam Provider (CamJam Lyall Bay)

Why this matters

Lyall Bay’s orientation makes it uniquely dependent on the combination of swell direction and wind angle. South swell without North wind means the spot may close out; North wind without South swell means no wave to ride. This isn’t a forgiving beach break—it rewards checking both conditions before committing to the drive.

The upshot

For Wellington surfers, the next 48 hours offer a decent window—arriving early before the northerly wind strengthens gives the best shot at groomed faces and clean take-offs. For those comparing spots, Lyall Bay is currently the stronger forecast between the two major Wellington options.

Related reading: Surf Forecast Lyall Bay: Reports, Cams, Tomorrow’s Conditions

While monitoring Lyall Bay’s swells and winds, many check the Mount Maunganui surf report for comparable North Island wave patterns and cams.

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Frequently asked questions

What are the best conditions for surfing Lyall Bay?

Lyall Bay performs best when a South swell coincides with offshore North winds. The left-hand wedge needs clean groundswell energy (longer periods, 12+ seconds) to wrap properly around the bay. Cross-offshore winds keep the face smooth without creating the turbulence that northerly cross-winds can introduce.

How accurate are Lyall Bay surf forecasts?

Surf-specialist sources like Surf-Forecast and Surfline tend to be reliable for 48-72 hours, with accuracy dropping for events more than five days out. MetService provides official government-verified data that cross-checks well against the specialist models. Combining two or three sources reduces the risk of betting on a swell that under-delivers.

What tides affect Lyall Bay surfing?

Lyall Bay’s shifting sandbanks mean tide height meaningfully affects wave shape and safety. Lower tides expose more reef and create steeper, faster faces—good for experienced surfers. Higher tides offer more forgiving entry but can reduce wave definition on smaller swells. Full tide data should be checked alongside swell forecasts using a dedicated tide app.

Are there paid vs free Lyall Bay cams?

Free options include the Lyall Bay SLSC cam, CamJam Wellington coverage, and Parrotdog’s feed. Surfline offers a premium tier with higher resolution, wind overlays, and session archiving. For a quick pre-session look, free cams are sufficient; paid platforms add value for regular users who want historical data and detailed forecasts.

How does Lyall Bay compare to Titahi Bay?

Lyall Bay catches South swells directly with higher max wave energy (3.5m vs Titahi Bay’s 2.1m). Titahi Bay requires Northwest swell and offers longer, less crowded lines when activated. The two spots are essentially complementary—when one is flat or blown out, the other may be working. The drive between them is roughly an hour.

What swell directions work best at Lyall Bay?

South swells are Lyall Bay’s bread and butter—these come directly from the Southern Ocean and wrap around the bay’s left-hand wedge. Southwest swells also work but tend to be less consistent. East swells generally don’t connect well with Lyall Bay’s bathymetry. Watch the swell direction indicator in your forecast app before deciding to make the drive.

When is peak surf season at Lyall Bay?

Autumn through early spring (March through August) typically brings the most consistent Southern Ocean swell activity to Wellington’s coast. Winter swells tend to be larger and more frequent, though wind patterns also shift toward more frequent northerly intrusions. Summer can offer cleaner conditions but smaller wave sizes on average.

For Wellington surfers weighing their options this week, the choice is relatively straightforward: check the 7AM swell before you load the car, verify with a live cam, and if South energy is above 4ft with a north wind component, Lyall Bay is worth the drive. If the wind is already cranking from the north, consider Titahi Bay’s Northwest swell potential or wait for the next pulse. The forecast models are useful tools, but no app replaces watching the water yourself.